Here's about the most objective read you can find, showing Obama's poll averages (including all polls) across the battleground states:
http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/10/11/11173/709/20/627471
Here's the key part:
State EVs Poll Total EVs
Safe Obama states 190
(10/7 res)
IA 7 O+14.2 (n/a) 197
PA 21 O+14.1 (O+12.9) 218
MI 17 O+13.6 (O+10.3) 235
NH 4 O+11.1 (O+11.6) 239
WI 10 O+9.0 (O+6.9) 249
MN 10 O+7.7 (O+10.9) 259
VA 13 O+7.7 (O+5.3) 272
So, Obama's up by over 7 points in the state he needs to win. And this doesn't include his, oh, 97 or so other likely pickups such as Colorado(9), Nex Mexico (5), Ohio(20), Florida (27), North Carolina(15), blah, blah. You get the picture. TODAY, it's looking good.
I add that last condition it's not time to celebrate or get complacent. But clearly, the complete fucking economic meltdown of the last few weeks has fundamentally altered the conditions of this race. States like Pennsylvania and Michigan, have moved into the guaranteed win status because concern with our dire situation has focused minds and reminded a lot of folks about just who's been watching over this disaster the last several years. McCain's attacks on Obama's 'otherness' and his (completely GOP-manufactured ) 'ties to terrorists' look tone deaf, clueless and pathetic when measured against the historic events of the last month. On the other hand, Obama's calm demeanor and steadiness are just very reassuring qualities to have in a leader.
It's not over, but it's going to take a lot to alter the fundamental new course this campaign has taken.
